Imports Of Rubber Decrease Sharply, Alleviate Domestic Oversupply Of Rubber

- Dec 31, 2019-

Imports of rubber decrease sharply, alleviate domestic oversupply of rubber


  After the rubber plunge due to the trade war last Friday, the rubber rebounded slightly this week to complete the main month change. As of Friday night, Ru1805 has 226,728 positions and 67,316 hands; Ru1809 has 332,858 hands, and 87,100 hands. As of Friday night, the price of Ru1809 is 11575 yuan / ton, and Ru1805 is 11245 yuan / ton.

  Global oversupply of natural rubber


  2018 is still in the cycle of increasing rubber production. According to ANRPC data, due to seasonal reasons, the production of natural rubber in the ANRPC member countries in February was 842,500 tons, a decrease of 22.6% month-on-month and a slight decrease of 4% year-on-year. From the consumer perspective, the consumption of natural rubber in ANRPC member countries in February was 575.6 thousand tons, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%.

  From the perspective of supply and demand surplus, in February ANRPC natural rubber supply and demand remained 266,900 tons, a decrease of 35.5% month-on-month and an increase of 20.6% year-on-year. And the supply and demand surplus in February was the highest in nearly three years.

  From the perspective of supply and demand surplus, in February ANRPC natural rubber supply and demand remained 266,900 tons, a decrease of 35.5% month-on-month and an increase of 20.6% year-on-year. And the supply and demand surplus in February was the highest in nearly three years.

  2. China's natural rubber imports fell sharply in February

  From the perspective of China's supply, starting from March 2nd, some rubber forests in Xishuangbanna production areas have begun tapping, and some factories have started to collect rubber, but they have not yet started on a large scale, and some regions may be delayed until around 25th. However, the price of rubber has been sluggish in recent days, and the enthusiasm for tapping has been frustrated after the natural rubber production area in Yunnan has been cut.

  In February, China imported 280,000 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber), including 110,000 tons of various types of natural rubber and 172,000 tons of mixed rubber. Natural rubber imports decreased by 52% month-on-month and 50% year-on-year. The import of mixed rubber was 170,600 tons, a decrease of 45.8% month-on-month and a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year.

  It can be seen that the decrease in the imports of natural rubber in February was mainly due to the decrease in the imports of mixed rubber and standard rubber. From China's major rubber importing countries, the amount of standard rubber and mixed rubber imported from Thailand in February decreased significantly.

  It can be seen that the decrease in the imports of natural rubber in February was mainly due to the decrease in the imports of mixed rubber and standard rubber. From China's major rubber importing countries, the amount of standard rubber and mixed rubber imported from Thailand in February decreased significantly.

  The standard rubber imported from Thailand in February was only 44,000 tons, the lowest value in February for five years.

  The standard rubber imported from Thailand in February was only 44,000 tons, the lowest value in February for five years.

At the same time in February, the import of mixed rubber from Thailand was 98,000 tons, a decrease of 35% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 25%. At the same time in February, the import of mixed rubber from Thailand was 98,000 tons, a decrease of 35% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 25%. From the perspective of supply, the supply pressure in February eased slightly, and the country was in the cut-off period. At the same time, the number of imports was much smaller than the previous imports. And in the past March, due to the domestic cut shortly, and abroad is about to enter the cut-off period, and the current price spread has returned in the previous period, the arbitrage space has narrowed, so the import volume in March will still be lower than in the same period in the past.

  3. Downstream demand improved This week, the average operating rate of domestic steel companies' semi-steel tires rose slightly from the previous month. The main reason is that last week, individual manufacturers affected by external factors resumed normal production this week. Most of the manufacturers in the sample have relatively stable production and sales, and more inventory is more reasonable. There are no new price policy guidelines during the week. This week, the domestic tire company's operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.00%, an increase of 2.25 percentage points month-on-month and a decline of 2.47 percentage points year-on-year.

  4. Natural rubber stocks fell. In terms of stocks, on March 19, rubber stocks in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell to 244,400 tons, of which natural rubber stocks fell to 122,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons compared to early March. Under the general environment, rubber remains It is in a state of oversupply, but the entire industry is in the process of suspending production abroad, the country has just opened, and the supply and demand mismatch phase of releasing capacity and demand downstream. The current price spread has returned, it is not ruled out that there will be a small wave of market, but in the long run, rubber is still empty. Imports have been greatly reduced, alleviating the oversupply of domestic rubber. Under the general environment, rubber is still in an oversupplied state, but the entire industry is in the process of suspending production abroad, the country has just opened, and the supply and demand mismatch between downstream capacity and demand is being released. The current price spread has returned, and it is not ruled out that there will be a small wave of market conditions, but in the long run, rubber miscellaneous parts are still empty.